College Football 25 simulation: Will BYU avenge last year’s loss to Oklahoma State and stay unbeaten?

Note: With EA Sports’ College Football 25 bringing college football back to the video game world, the Deseret News is simulating every BYU game against an FBS opponent this season.
BYU heads into the second half of the season riding high.
The Cougars are 6-0, ranked No. 13 in the country and are tied with two other teams at 3-0 atop the Big 12 Conference.
That means a matchup against 3-3 Oklahoma State on Friday night should be easy, right?
Maybe not. The Cowboys, though they’ve lost three straight games, started the year in the top 15 and were a favorite to win the Big 12, but they’ve hit tough times.
How will Friday’s game between the two play out?
The Deseret News ran a simulation of Friday’s game on the EA Sports College Football 25 video game — and the matchup went back and forth with a finish that will keep fans in the stands.
There were a couple of ground rules in place: The simulation used 12-minute quarters — I bumped that up from using 10 minutes during the first half of the year, to better reflect an accurate number of possessions per game — and I let the computer simulate the game with no user interference.
CPU ratings have also been adjusted a bit from the standard to make pass defense more realistic — I adjusted the passing accuracy from 50 to 35, then adjusted pass defense ratings from 50 to 80. That helped to create more realistic numbers.
Injuries and depth chart movement were also implemented.
The Cougars played with a full stable of running backs in last week’s win over Arizona, and they are all available again this week.
Wide receiver Kody Epps was kept out for a second-straight week, and with center Connor Pay still sidelined with a broken foot, Bruce Mitchell replaced him at center again for BYU. Also, with Sonny Makasini out at guard and Austin Leausa not in the video game, Jake Eichorn was slotted in at right guard.
Oklahoma State is reportedly going with redshirt sophomore Garret Rangel at quarterback — it’s his first start of the season.
The Cowboys also have a pair of star linebackers missing, with Collin Oliver and Nick Martin injured.
The uniforms both teams will be wearing were also implemented into the simulation.
BYU is going with a royal blue jersey with white helmet, white facemark and white pants, all adorned with royal trim. Oklahoma State did not announce any uniform decisions, so I used their traditional road white uniforms with the orange script helmet.
Though it’s been forecasted to be rainy Friday night much of the week, the forecast the day of the game no longer calls for rain during the contest, so I made it overcast at kickoff.
The actual score: BYU 41, Arizona 19
College Football 25 simulation final score: BYU 20, Arizona 15
My analysis: The simulation was a bit more conservative offensively than what the final score ended up being, though at least through halftime in the actual game, it appeared it may be accurate.
The Cougars led the Wildcats 14-7 at the break in last Saturday’s game before extending their lead early in the second half thanks to two turnovers from Arizona.
In the simulation, BYU had to hold strong on a late rally before forcing a turnover to win.
Final score: BYU 41, Oklahoma State 33
Key sequence: In a game where there was plenty of offensive fireworks, it was a defensive play that won it for BYU.
The Cougars saw a 35-24 lead trimmed to two points with 7:14 to play on a Brennan Presley 20-yard touchdown reception, and Oklahoma State opted to go for two to try and tie the score.
Rangel, though, was stopped for a loss on a quarterback draw, and BYU marched on a long drive following that before putting the game away in the final minutes.
How the simulation transpired: After a couple early punts and turnovers, this game was mostly about offense.
The Cougars got on the board first, as linebacker Sione Moa intercepted Rangel on the game’s third play and scored on a 32-yard pick-six less than a minute into the game.
After two Oklahoma State punts and one from BYU, the Cougars had a promising drive going before Chase Roberts lost a fumble after a catch and Oklahoma State recovered at its own 35.
Cowboys running back Ollie Gordon II took over on the next drive, turning four straight touches into 40-plus yards gained, and his 4-yard run on third and two pushed Oklahoma State to the BYU 14 with one minute left in the first quarter.
On the next play, Rangel found De’Zhaun Stribling for a 14-yard touchdown pass to tie the game.
The Cougars were outscored 14-7 in the second quarter — Oklahoma State used two long drives to score touchdowns, while BYU cashed in once but had a Will Ferrin 51-yard field goal attempt that missed wide right as the half expired.
BYU scored on a 7-yard LJ Martin run with 7:56 until halftime, capping a 75-yard drive where BYU twice converted third down.
The Cowboys struck back, though, moving the ball downfield and scoring on a 14-yard Rashod Owens catch to end an 11-play, 82-yard drive and make it 14-14.
On the ensuing possession, Jake Retzlaff was sacked on third down to force a punt, and Oklahoma State quickly capitalized, moving the ball downfield quickly before scoring on a 4-yard Stribling catch with 46 seconds until halftime.
The Cougars regained control in the third quarter, though, using two quick drives to regain the lead.
BYU took the opening possession of the second half and scored in three plays, as Parker Kingston caught a 39-yard pass from Retzlaff. The drive covered 84 yards in 57 seconds.
After an Oklahoma State three and out, BYU again struck quickly. This time, a five-play drive ended with Keanu Hill catching an 8-yard touchdown pass. The possession included catches of 28 and 26 yards for Hill and Kingston, respectively, and BYU was up 28-21.
The Cowboys responded with a drive of their own that resulted in a 39-yard field goal, but BYU again had an answer.
This time, Hill caught a pass and ran the final 45 yards untouched on a 68-yard touchdown pass to make the score 35-24 for BYU heading into the fourth quarter.
Oklahoma State made the end interesting, hitting a field goal with just over 10 minutes to play to make it 35-27.
Then, after a BYU three and out, the Cowboys sliced through the Cougar defense and scored on a 24-yard Presley touchdown with 7:14 to play.
BYU, though, stopped the two-point conversion to maintain a 35-33 lead.
The Cougars then ate up more than five minutes off the clock on the ensuing possession and scored on a 29-yard field goal — a holding penalty inside the red zone forced the three-point attempt — with 1:49 to play.
BYU then stopped Oklahoma State deep in its end of the field on the ensuing possession, with Isaiah Bagnah sacking Rangel to force a long fourth down attempt, where Rangel threw incomplete.
The Cougars got the ball back with 45 seconds left and Oklahoma State only had two timeouts, but an unfortunate circumstance led to BYU needing to give the ball back.
On first down, a Cougar injury kept Oklahoma State from needing to call timeout, and then the Cowboys stopped two BYU runs and used its final two timeouts to put the Cougars in a fourth down situation with 30 seconds to play.
Ferrin added a 27-yard field goal to make it an 8-point game, and then the BYU defense held again.
A few plays into the drive, Rangel found Stribling to move the ball to BYU’s 49, but he couldn’t get out of bounds and the clock ran out before Oklahoma State could get a snap off.
Star players: Retzlaff had perhaps his best day as a Cougar, with 331 yards passing and three touchdowns, all in the third quarter.
Martin ran for 101 yards and the touchdown, while Hill made seven catches for 115 yards.
Jakob Robinson led the defense, finishing with 10 tackles, two tackles for loss and an interception.
Rangel threw for 266 yards and four touchdowns in his first start this year, but his two interceptions proved costly.
Gordon ran for 125 yards, with a 3.7 per-carry average, while Presley added nine catches for 126 yards.
Key stats: The Cougars held the edge in total yards, with 456 to 418 for the Cowboys.
Both teams found similar success on third down — BYU finished 7 of 13, while Oklahoma State was 7 of 16.
My analysis: It felt like there was too much offense in this one, with both quarterbacks able to find open receivers without much trouble in critical situations during the second and third quarters.
It wouldn’t be surprising, though, for this to be a close game throughout.
The Cougars may have the edge, but the Cowboys are a dangerous team.